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Darwinism: Science or Philosophy
Chapter 7
The Incompleteness of Scientific Naturalism
William A. Dembski
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Response to this paper.
FIRST LET ME EXPRESS my thanks to the organizers of this symposium for
the opportunity to present certain ideas that for some time now have
exercised me. The occasion for this symposium is Phillip Johnson's book
Darwin on Trial. The title would suggest that Johnson's main
concern is with Darwinism and neo-Darwinism proper. Nevertheless, I
would claim that Johnson's book is as much about a philosophical world
view used to prop up Darwinism as it is about Darwinism. Atheism,
materialism, scientism, and secular humanism are a few of the names
attached to this world view. Yet the name I like best and find most
descriptive is scientific naturalism.
I want here to examine scientific naturalism. I am going to argue
that this view has a serious defect-it is incomplete. As a
consequence of this defect I shall argue that it is legitimate within
scientific discourse to entertain questions about supernatural design.
The backdrop for this discussion will comprise two areas in mathematics:
computational complexity theory and probability theory.
First let's be clear what we mean by scientific naturalism. The key
ingredient in scientific naturalism is, let me say it, naturalism.
Naturalism as a world view has two components: (1) It is a
metaphysical doctrine about what things exist in the world. These
include material objects and sometimes (as for the philosopher Willard
Quine) mathematical objects such as sets. Excluded are supernatural
beings, nonmaterial interventions, divine meddlings, etc. (2) Naturalism
includes an epistemological doctrine about how the things permitted
under this metaphysical doctrine are to be explained-i.e., they are to
be explained naturalistically. I am not sure that naturalistic
explanation is a perfectly clear notion, but what is clear is that
naturalistic explanation excludes any sort of appeal to nonmaterial
intervention, divine meddling, etc.
Where does the 'scientific' in scientific naturalism come in? As a world
view, scientific naturalism regards itself as continuous with
science. It therefore looks to our scientific understanding of the
world for its justification. This last point distinguishes scientific
naturalism from naturalism simpliciter. It is also this last point that
is responsible for scientific naturalism being incomplete.
To see what is at stake let me quote the last line of Edwin Hubble's
The Realm of the Nebulae: "Not until the empirical resources
are exhausted need we pass on to the dreamy realms of speculation." When
Hubble wrote that line in the 1930s, he clearly believed that the
empirical resources would not be exhausted and that our entrance into
the dreamy realms of speculation could be postponed indefinitely.
Against this I would argue that empirical resources come in limited
supplies and do get exhausted. Moreover, as soon as empirical resources
are exhausted, naturalism can no longer fund its justification in
science. This then is the incompleteness of scientific naturalism,
namely, the incapacity of science to justify naturalism once the
empirical resources wherewith science limits itself get exhausted.
Next I want to focus on two empirical resources, one computational, the
other probabilistic. I want to show how even the possibility of these
resources being exhausted undermines the completeness of scientific
naturalism-the pretension, as far as I'm concerned, that a complete
understanding of the world is possible apart from God. Since this talk
is addressed primarily to non-mathematicians, I'll begin by considering
the words of a well-known American philosopher, Woody Allen.
Woody Allen probably didn't think that God would take him seriously when
he quipped,
If only God would give me some clear sign! Like
making a large deposit in my name at a Swiss bank.{1}
But what if God had taken Allen seriously? Would an unexpected
$7,000,000, say, in Allen's Swiss bank account have convinced him that
God was real? Suppose that a thorough examination of the bank records
failed to explain how the money appeared in Allen's account. Should
Allen have inferred that God had given him a sign?
Since I can't answer for Allen, let me answer for myself. If I were a
famous personality having uttered Allen's remark and subsequently found
an additional $7,000,000 in my Swiss bank account, I would certainly not
have attributed my unexpected good fortune to the largesse of an
eccentric deity. It's not that I don't believe in God. I do. But my
theology constrains me to think it unworthy of God to grant flippant
requests like Allen's and then apparently ignore the urgent requests of
so many suffering people in the world.
I would refuse to acknowledge a miracle for theological reasons, Barring
theological reasons, however, I would still refuse to acknowledge a
miracle. Why? Well, other explanations readily come to mind. If I had
uttered the remark and were as famous as Allen, and if $7,000,000 had
appeared in my account, I would probably have concluded that some
eccentric billionaire with a religious agenda was trying to convert me
to his cause. The strange appearance of the $7,000,000 would have been
fiendishly designed to make me believe in God. But alas, I was too
clever for them.
There is a point to these musings. Allen's remark is clearly funny;
however, if taken seriously it is self-defeating. If God were in fact to
do what Allen requested. Allen and just about anyone else would remain
unconvinced. The question therefore arises whether God can do anything,
either in response to a request like Allen's or otherwise, which would
provide convincing proof that he and no one else had acted.
Let's put it this way: is there anything that has, could, or might
happen in the world from which it would be reasonable to conclude that
God had acted? Are there or could there be any facts in the world for
which an appeal to God is the best explanation? Or to reverse the
question, is God always an easy way out, a lame excuse, a prescientific
device that invariably misses the best explanation?{2}
We are asking a transcendental question in the Kantian sense: What are
the conditions for the possibility of discovering design (i.e.,
supernatural intervention, nonmaterial interference, divine meddling,
call it what you will) in the actual world? This question must be
answered at the outset, for if this world is the type of place where
anything even in principle that happens can be adequately explained
apart from teleology and design, then it makes no sense to look for
design in what actually happens. Might the world do something, however
quirky, that would convince us of design?
An illustration might help. Imagine a peculiar art studio comprised of
ten-inch by ten-inch canvases, a full range of oil paints, and a robot
that paints the canvases with the paints. In painting the canvases, the
robot divides each canvas into a ten by ten grid of one-inch squares,
and paints each square with precisely one color. Imagine that this robot
also has visual sensors and thus can paint scenes presented to its
visual field, though only crudely, given the coarse-grained approach it
adopts to painting.
Imagine next that Elvis and an Elvis impersonator come to have their
portraits painted by this robot. Will the portraits distinguish Elvis
from his impersonator? Because the representations on canvas are so
crude, if the impersonator is worth his salt, the two portraits will be
indistinguishable. Our imaginary art studio cannot distinguish the real
Elvis from the fake Elvis.
This example indicates what is at stake in determining whether design
has at least the possibility of being detected and empirically grounded.
Putative instances of design abound. But is it possible within this
world to distinguish authentic from spurious design should instances of
authentic design even exist? Or is this world like the art studio? Just
as the portraits painted at the studio cannot distinguish the real from
the fake Elvis, so too is it impossible for our empirical investigations
of the world to distinguish authentic from spurious design?
Scientific naturalism prefers to think just this, namely, that the world
is the kind of place where all objective phenomena can be explained by
purely naturalistic factors. Non-naturalistic factors therefore become
not only redundant but also illegitimate to explanation. As George
Gaylord Simpson put it,
There is neither need nor excuse for postulation
of nonmaterial intervention in the origin of life, the rise
of man, or any other part of the long history of the
material cosmos.{3}
Simpson claims that the world is the kind of place where no objective,
empirical funding can ever legitimately lead us to postulate design
(what he calls "nonmaterial intervention").
That is a bold claim. The question remains whether it is true. In the
case of the art studio, it is true that robot portraits of Elvis and his
impersonator will fail to distinguish the two. The paintings produced by
the studio are simply too coarse grained to do any better. From these
paintings there is, to use Simpson's phrase, "neither need nor excuse
for postulation of" two Elvises, the real and the fake. From the
portraits alone we might legitimately infer only one sitter. But is the
world so coarse grained that it cannot even in principle produce events
that would evidence design? That is what Simpson seems to be affirming.
A little reflection, however, indicates that this claim cannot be
right.
We consider a thought experiment, one I call "The Incredible Talking
Pulsar." Imagine that astronomers have discovered a pulsar some three
billion light years from the earth. The pulsar is, say, a rotating
neutron star that emits regular pulses of electromagnetic radiation in
the radio frequency range. The astronomers who found the star are at
first unimpressed by their discovery. It's only another star to
catalogue. One of the astronomers, however, is a ham radio operator.
Looking over the pattern of pulses one day, he finds that they are in
Morse code. Still more surprisingly, he finds that the pattern of pulses
signals English messages in Morse code.{4}
Word quickly spreads within the scientific community, and from there to
the world at large. Radio observatories around the globe start
monitoring the "talking" pulsar. The pulsar isn't just transmitting
random English messages, but is instead intelligently communicating with
the inhabitants of earth. In fact, once the pulsar has gained our
attention, it identifies itself. The pulsar informs us that it is the
mouthpiece of Yahweh, the God of both the Old and the New Testaments,
the creator of the universe, the final judge of humankind.
Pretty heady stuff you say. But to confirm this otherwise extravagant
claim, the pulsar agrees to answer any questions we might put to it. The
pulsar specifies the following method of posing and answering questions.
The descendants of Levi are to make an ark like the one originally
constructed under Moses (see Exodus 25). This ark is to be placed on
Mount Zion in Israel. Every hour on the hour a question written in
English is to be placed inside the ark. Ten minutes later the pattern of
pulses reaching earth from the pulsar will answer that question, the
answer being framed as an English message in Morse code.{5}
The information transmitted through the pulsar proves to be nothing
short of fantastic. Medical doctors learn how to cure AIDS, cancer, and
a host of other diseases. Archaeologists learn where to dig for lost
civilizations and how to make sense out of them. Physicists get their
long-sought-after unification of the forces of nature. Meteorologists
are forewarned of natural disasters and weather patterns years before
they occur. Ecologists learn effective methods for cleansing and
preserving the earth. Mathematicians obtain proofs to many long-standing
open problems-in some cases proofs they can check, but proofs they could
never have produced on their own. The list of credits could be
continued, but let us stop here.
What shall we make of the pulsar? Whether the pulsar is in fact the
mouthpiece of Yahweh, the pulsar creates serious difficulties for
scientific naturalism. Not only is there no way to square the
pulsar's behavior with our current scientific understanding of the
world, but it is hard to conceive how any naturalistic explanation will
ever account for the pulsar's behavior. For instance, our curtent
scientific understanding based on Einsteinian special relativity tells
us that messages cannot be relayed at superluminal speeds. Since the
pulsar is three billion light years from the earth, any signal we
receive from the pulsar was sent billions of years ago. Yet the pulsar
is "responding" to our questions within ten minutes of the written
questions being placed inside the ark. The pulsar's answers therefore
seem to precede our questions by billions of years.
To get around this, scientific naturalists might want to postulate
reverse causality or superluminal signaling. Naturalists might find this
idea more congenial than postulating "nonmaterial intervention," but
reverse causality and superluminal signaling do not even begin to
address the questions raised by the pulsar. It is inescapable that in
dealing with the pulsar we are dealing with not just an intelligence,
but with a super-intelligence. Now by a super-intelligence I don't mean
an intelligence that at this time surpasses human capability, but which
in time humans can hope to attain. Nor do I mean a super-human
intelligence that might nevertheless be realized in some finite rational
material agent embedded in the world (say an extraterrestrial
intelligence or a conscious super-computer). By a super-intelligence I
mean a supernatural intelligence, i.e., an intelligence surpassing
anything that physical processes are capable of offering. This
intelligence exceeds anything that humans or finite rational agents in
the universe are capable of even in principle.
How can we see that the pulsar instantiates a super-intelligence? The
place to look is computer science. There are problems in computer
science that can be proven mathematically to require more computational
resources for their solution than are available in the universe. Think
of it this way. There are estimated to be no more than 1080 elementary
particles in the universe. The properties of matter are such that
circuits cannot be switched faster than 1045 times per second.{6} The universe itself is about a
billion times younger than 1025 seconds (assuming that the universe is
at least a billion years old). Given these upper bounds we can
confidently assert that no computation exceeding lO80 x 1045 x 1025 =
10150 elementary steps is possible within the universe. By an elementary
step I mean the switching of a two-state device, conceived abstractly as
the switching of a binary integer (= bit). For a computation of this
complexity therefore to be carried out in the universe, every available
elementary particle in the universe would have to serve as an elementary
storage device (= memory bit) capable of switching at 1045 hertz over a
period of a billion billion years.
1050 is incredibly generous as an upper bound on the complexity of
computations possible in the universe. Here are a few reasons why a much
smaller bound will do: (1) quantum mechanical considerations indicate
that reliable memory storage is unworkable below the atomic level{7} since at this level quantum
indeterminacy will make not only storage, but also reading and writing
of information impossible. Hence each elementary storage device will
have to consist of more than one elementary particle. (2) The preceding
calculation treats the universe as a giant piece of random access memory
that is controlled by a processor outside the universe operating at 1045
hertz with instant access to any memory location in RAM. In fact, the
processor will itself have to take up part of the universe. Moreover,
its access to memory locations will have in some cases to be measured in
light years and not in 1045 second chunks. Even with massively parallel
processing, computation speeds will fall far below the 1045 hertz upper
bound. (3) Finally, the bound of 1025 seconds for the maximum running
time of a computation is excessive since the heat death of the universe
will probably have occurred by then. Suffice it to say, even with the
entire universe functioning as a computer, no computation requiring 1050
elementary steps, much less 10150 floating point operations, is
feasible.
Now it is possible to pose problems in computer science for which the
quickest solution requires well beyond this number steps, yet for which
with a solution in hand it is possible even for humans using ordinary
electronic computers to check whether the solution is correct. Factoring
integers into primes is thought to be one such problem. Since the
factorization problem is easy to understand, let me treat it as though
it were one of the "provably hard problems." If at some time in the
future a "quick" algorithm is found for factoring numbers, we shall need
to modify this example; nevertheless, our contention that there are
problems whose solution is beyond the computational resources of the
universe, yet verifiable by humans, will still hold.{8}
What is the factorization into primes of 1961? Solving this requires a
bit of work. But if you are given the prime numbers 37 and 53, it is a
simple matter to check whether these are prime factors of 1961. In fact
37 x 53 = 1961. Factoring is hard, multiplication is easy. We can
therefore go to our pulsar with numbers thousands of digits long and ask
it to factor them. Factoring numbers that long is totally beyond our
present capabilities and in all likelihood exceeds the computational
limits inherent in the universe by many, many orders of magnitude. (When
I was following the literature on factoring a few years back, numbers
beyond two hundred digits in length could not be factored unless they
had either small or special prime factors.) Nevertheless, it is easy
enough to check whether the pulsar is getting the factorizations right,
even for numbers thousands of digits in length.{9}
What lesson can we learn from the pulsar? I claim we should infer that a
designer in the full sense of the word is communicating through the
pulsar, i.e., a designer who is both intelligent and transcendent.
Intelligence is certainly not a problem here. Alan Turing's famous test
for intelligence pitted computer against human in a contest where a
human judge was to decide which was the computer and which was the
human.{10} If the human judge
could not distinguish the computer from the human, Turing wanted
intelligence attributed to the computer.
This operationalist approach to intelligence has since been questioned,
by theists on one end and hard-core physicalists on the other. But the
basic idea that there is no better test for intelligence than coherent
natural language communication remains intact. If we cannot legitimately
attribute intelligence to the pulsar, then no attribution of
intelligence should count as legitimate. Transcendence is clear as well,
given our discussion of intractable computational problems. Suffice it
to say, a being that solves problems beyond the computational resources
of the material world is not material. When we can confirm that such
problems have in fact been solved for us, we cannot avoid postulating
"nonmaterial intervention."
The pulsar demonstrates that ours is the type of world where design has
at least the possibility of becoming perfectly evident-with the pulsar,
empirical validation for design can be made as good as we like. In the
actual world, design is therefore not only possible but also empirically
knowable. I have belabored this point because it is a point scientific
naturalism would rather not grant. Once, however, it is granted that the
occurrence of certain events might require us to postulate "nonmaterial
intervention," we need to consider whether any events that have actually
occurred require us to postulate such intervention. It is obvious that
the pulsar is an exercise in overkill. No instance of design so
crushingly obvious is known. Science fiction has therefore done its work
for us. It is time to put science fiction to rest, and look at what
solid evidence there is for design in the actual world. We therefore
leave computational resources and turn to probabilistic resources.
I use the term probabilistic resources to describe what I call
replicational resources on the one hand, and specificational resources
on the other. To appreciate what is at stake with these resources let us
consider two examples. The first illustrates replicational resources,
the second specificational resources.
Here is the first example. Imagine that a massive revision of the
criminal justice system has taken place. Henceforward a convicted
criminal is sentenced to serve time in prison until he flips n heads in
a row, where n is selected according to the severity of the offense (we
assume that all coin flips are fair and are duly recorded; no cheating
is possible). Thus for a ten-year prison sentence, if we assume the
prisoner can flip a coin once every five seconds (this seems
reasonable), eight hours a day, six days a week, and given that the
average attempt at getting a streak of heads before tails is 2
(=S18iTi2-i), then he will on average attempt to get a string of n
heads once every 10 seconds, or 6 attempts a minute, or 360 attempts an
hour, or 2,880 attempts in an eight-hour work day, or 901,440 attempts a
year (assuming a six-day work week), or approximately 9 million attempts
in ten years. Nine million is approximately 223. Thus if we required of
a prisoner that he flip 23 heads in a row before being released, we
could expect to see him out in approximately ten years. Of course
specific instances will vary- some prisoners being released after only a
short stay, others never recording the elusive 23 heads!
Now consider the average prisoner's reaction after about ten years when
he finally flips 23 heads in row. Is he shocked? Does he think a miracle
has occurred? Absolutely not. Given his replicational resources, i.e.,
the number of opportunities he had for observing 23 heads in a row, he
could expect to get out of prison in about ten years. There is in fact
nothing improbable about his getting out of prison in this span of time.
It is improbable that on any given occasion he will flip 23 heads in a
row. But when all these occasions are considered jointly, it becomes
quite probable that he will be out of prison within the ten years' time.
The prisoner's replicational resources comprise the number of occasions
he has to produce 23 heads in a row. If his life expectancy is better
than ten years, he has a good chance of getting out of prison.
In short, replicational resources are adequate for getting out of
prison.
If, however, the number of heads a prisoner must flip in a row is
exorbitant, then his replicational resources will be inadequate for
getting out of prison. Consider a prisoner sentenced to flip 100 heads
in a row. The probability of getting 100 heads in a row on a given trial
is so small that he has no practical hope of getting out of prison, even
if his life expectancy was dramatically increased. If he could, for
instance, make 10 billion attempts each year to obtain 100 heads in a
row, then he stands only an even chance of getting out of jail in 1020
years. His replicational resources are so inadequate for obtaining the
desired 100 heads that it's pointless to entertain hopes of freedoms.{11}
With replicational resources the question is how many opportunities
exist for observing a specific event (in the preceding example the event
was flipping n heads in a row). With specificational resources the
question is how many opportunities are there for specifying an as yet
undetemmined event. Lotteries provide the perfect vehicle for
illustrating specificational resources. Indeed, each lottery ticket is a
specification. To illustrate specificational resources, consider now the
following lottery to end all lotteries: In the interest of eliminating
the national deficit, the federal government agrees to hold a national
lottery in which the grand prize is to be dictator of the United States
for a single day- i.e., for twenty-four hours the winner will have full
power over every aspect of government. If a white supremacist wins, he
can order the wholesale execution of nonwhites. If a porn king wins, he
can order this country turned into a giant debauch. If a pacifist wins,
he can order the destruction of all our weapons .... The more moderate
elements of the society will clearly want to prevent the loony fringe
from winning, and will therefore be inclined to invest heavily in this
lottery.
This natural inclination, however, is mitigated by the following
consideration: the probability of any one ticket winning is 1 in 2100,
or approximately 1 in 1030. To buy a ticket, the lottery player pays a
fixed price and then records a 0-1 string of length 100-whichever string
he chooses. He is permitted to purchase as many tickets as he wishes,
subject only to his financial resources and the time it takes to record
the 0-1 strings of length 100. The lottery is to be drawn at a special
meeting of the United States Senate: By alphabetical order each senator
is to flip a coin once and record the resulting coin toss.
Suppose now that the fateful day has arrived. A trillion tickets have
been sold at ten dollars apiece. To prevent cheating, Congress has
enlisted the services of the National Academy of Sciences. Following the
NAS's recommendation, each ticket holder's name is duly entered onto a
secure data base, together with the tickets purchased and the ticket
numbers (i.e., the bit strings relevant to deciding the winner). All
this information is now in place. After much fanfare the senators start
flipping their coins. As soon as Senator Zygmund has announced his toss,
the data base is consulted to determine whether the lottery had a
winner. Lo and behold, the lottery did indeed have a winner-Joe
"Killdozer" Skinhead, leader of the White Trash Nation. Joe's first act
as dictator is to raise a swastika over the Capitol.
From a probabilist's perspective there is one overriding implausibility
to this example. The implausibility rests not with the federal
government's sponsoring a lottery to eliminate the national debt, nor
with the fascistic prize of being dictator for a day, nor with the way
the lottery is decided at a special meeting of the Senate, nor even with
the fantastically poor odds of winning the lottery. The implausibility
rests with the lottery's having a winner. Indeed, as a probabilist
myself, I would encourage the federal government to institute such a
lottery if it could redress the national debt, for I am convinced that
if the lottery is run fairly, there will be no winner. The odds are
simply too much against it.
Suppose, for instance, that a trillion tickets are sold at ten dollars
apiece (this would cover the deficit as it stands in 1992). What is the
probability that one of those tickets (= specifications) will match the
winning string of 0's and l's drawn by the Senate? An elementary
calculation shows that this probability can be no greater than 1 in
1018. This is a tiny probability. Even if we increase the number of
lottery tickers sold by several orders of magnitude, there still won't
be enough sold for the lottery to stand a reasonable chance of having a
winner. Since lottery tickets are specifications, this is equivalent to
saying there aren't enough specifications to specify the event in
question (i.e., the winning of the lottery).
Often it is necessary to consider replicational and specificational
resources in tandem. Suppose for instance in the preceding lottery that
the Senate will hold up to a thousand drawings to determine a winner.
Assume as before that a trillion tickets have been sold. It follows that
for his probabilistic setup the specificational resources include a
trillion specifications and that replicational resources include a
thousand possible repetitions. An elementary calculation now
shows that the probability of this modified lottery having a winner is
no greater than 1 in 10". That too is a tiny probability. The joint
replicational and specifcational resources are so inadequate that it
remains exceedingly unlikely this lottery will have a winner.
In times past it used to be much easier to "inflate" probabilistic
resources than it is now. The question whether the universe is finite or
infinite used to be a philosophical, not an empirical question. Thomas
Aquinas claimed it was only by revelation that we could know that the
universe was finite. Reason, according to him. left open the possibility
of an infinite universe. Spinoza's philosophical system required an
infinite universe, but again on metaphysical, not empirical, grounds.
Hume himself appreciated the benefits that accrue to scientific
naturalism when a universe of infinite duration is presupposed:
A finite number of particles is only susceptible
of finite transpositions: and it must happen, in an eternal
duration, that every possible order or position must be
tried an infinite number of times. This world, therefore,
with all its events, even the most minute, has before been
produced and destroyed, and will again be produced and
destroyed without any bounds and limitations. No one, who
has a conception of the power of the infinite, in comparison
of the finite, will ever scruple this detemmination.{12}
In his younger days Einstein had been committed to Spinoza's God.
Spinoza had identified God with Nature and assumed that this God was
infinite in extent and duration. Consistent with Spinoza's conception,
Einstein formulated his field equations to model such an infinite
universe. Now "when in 1927 the Abbé Lemaître derived from Einstein's
cosmological equations the expansion of the universe and correlated that
rate with data on galactic red-shifts already available,"{13} the spatio-temporal extent of
the universe became an empirical question. The "data on galactic
red-shifts already available" was that of Hubble and Humason. When in
the early 1930s Einstein visited Hubble in California and inspected this
data, Einstein came away convinced that the universe was indeed
finite.{14} The inflationary
universe of Alan Guth and his successors, much like the steady state
theory of the 1950s, attempts to recapture Spinoza's lost infinity. In
my view, these theories arise solely out of a need to preserve
scientific naturalism, in this case by increasing probabilistic
resources and thereby rendering appeals to chance plausible.
What event exhausts the probabilistic resources inherent in the
universe? The origin of life does so quite nicely. Anyone who grapples
with the improbabilities inherent in life's origin is quickly
confounded. Indeed, the improbabilities are truly staggering. Fred
Hoyle, for instance. computes that a single cell might on the basis of
chance be expected every 1040000 years if the entire universe were
filled with a prebiotic liquid (an assumption that is incredibly
generous).{15} Bernd-Olaf
Küppers, a pupil of Manfred Eigen, commenting on merely a certain
subunit of a virus, writes:
The RNA sequence that codes for the virus-speciftc subunit of the
replicase complex consists of approximately a thousand nucleotides, . .
. so that it already possess ln = 41000 » 10600 alternative sequences
.... The spontaneous synthesis [of this system] . . . is therefore
extremely improbable.{16}
He concludes that probability theory "does not bring us a single step
further as regards the statistical aspect of the origin of life."{17} Lecomte du Noüy found similarly
wild improbabilities back in the 1940s.{18 } Hubert Yockey and Michael Behe continue to compute them
today.{19}
Is this exhausting of probabilistic resources any reason to postulate
nonmaterial intervention, to invoke a supernatural designer, or to
believe in God? I have tried throughout this discussion to be cautious.
My sights have ever been set on scientific naturalism. My aim has been
to show that scientific naturalism is incomplete. I have sketched the
beginnings of such an argument, that science cannot adequately support
naturalism and that nature does things to exhaust the empirical
resources determined by science. One can now try to retain naturalism by
introducing a metaphysical hypothesis that postulates a lot more
naturalistic stuff than science can sanction.
On the other hand, one can dispense with naturalism and introduce an
entirely different son of metaphysical hypothesis-God. These two choices
do not exhaust all possibilities, but they are by far the most
common.
Which is to be preferred? Since my aim has not been to pitch
metaphysical hypotheses, but show that one of these metaphysical
hypotheses, naturalism, cannot be redeemed in the coin of science, I
shall not argue this question here. Nevertheless, it must be emphasized
that science regularly has its empirical resources exhausted. Moreover,
when its empirical resources are exhausted, science cannot plead
momentary ignorance which it hopes some day to redress. When its
empirical resources are exhausted, science is in no position to
distribute promissory notes. When its empirical resources are exhausted,
science itself closes the door to naturalistic explanation.
The door therefore remains wide open to a scientiftcally defensible
account of intelligent design.{20}
NOTES
{1} Quoted in Peter's
Quotations, s.v. "Doubt."
{2} Richard Dawkins certainly thinks
so. Consider his comment on the origin of the DNA/protein machine: '[To
invoke] a supernatural Designer is to explain precisely nothing, for it
leaves unexplained the origin of the Designer. You have to say something
like 'God was always there', and if you allow yourself that kind of lazy
way out, you might as well just say 'DNA was always there', or 'Life was
always there', and be done with it" [Dawkins 1987:141].
{3} Quoted in Johnson [1991:114].
{4} I owe the idea of a talking
pulsar to Charles Chastain. The pulsar is an oracle. Here I am using
oracles to investigate the possibility of design. Oracles, however,
illuminate a host of philosophical questions. I have, for instance, used
oracles to investigate the mind-body problem. See Dembski
[1990:203-205].
{5} Perhaps to make this story more
convincing, both the questions and the answers should be in Hebrew. I'm
not sure, however, what Hebrew looks like in Morse code, so I'll stick
with English.
{6} This universal bound on
computational speed is based on the Planck time, currently the smallest
physically meaningful unit of time. Universal time bounds for electronic
computers involve clock speeds between ten and twenty magnitudes slower.
See Wegener [1987:2].
{7} Even at the atomic level quantum
effects make reliable storage unworkable. Indeed, the smallest scale at
which vast, reliable storage is known to be possible is at the next
level up-the molecular level. We can thank molecular biologists for this
insight.
{8} See Balcazár [1990: chapter 11]
for the underlying theory.
{9} I've chosen factoring because
factoring is easy to understand. There are problems that are not just
thought to be hard, but are provably hard.
{10} See Turing [1950].
{11} This example appeared first
in Dembski [1991: 104, note 6].
{12} Hume [1779:67].
{13} Jaki [1989:28].
{14} See Jastrow
[1980].
{15} See Hoyle and
Wickramasinghe [1981:1-33, 130-141], Hoyle [1982:1-65], and the
appendix by Herman Eckelmann in Montgomery [1991].
{16} Küppers [1990:68]. Küppers is
a pupil of Manfred Eigen.
{17} Küppers [1990:68].
{18} See chapter 3 of du Noüy
[1947].
{19} See Yockey [1977] and Behe's
article in this volume.
{20} Look for the upcoming
book on intelligent design by William Dembski, Stephen Meyer, and Paul
Nelson.
REFERENCES
Balcázar, José L., Josep Díaz, and Joaquim Gabarr".
1990 Structural Complexity II. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
Dawkins, Richard.
1987 The Blind Watchmaker. New York: W. W. Norton.
Dembski, William A.
1990 "Convening Matter into Mind: Alchemy and Philosopher's Stone in
Cognitive Science." Perspectives on Science and Christian Faith
42(4), 1990:202-226.
1991 "Randomness by Design." Nous 25(1):75-106.
du Noüy, Lecomte.
1947 Human Destiny. New York: Longmans, Green and Company.
Hoyle, Fred.
1982 Cosmology and Astrophysics. Ithaca: Cornell University
Press.
Hoyle, Fred and Chandra Wickramasinghe.
1981 Evolution from Space. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Hubble, Edwin P.
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Hume, David.
1779 Dialogues Concerning Natural Religion. Buffalo:
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Jaki, Stanley L.
1989 God and the Cosmologists. Washington, D.C.: Regnery
Gateway.
Jastrow, Robert.
1980 God and the Astronomers. New York: Warner Books.
Johnson, Phillip E.
1991 Darwin on Trial. Downers Grove, Ill.: InterVarsity
Press.
Küppers, Bernd-Olaf.
1990 Information and the Origin of Life. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT
Press.
Montogomery John W.,ed.
1991 Evidence for Faith: Deciding the God Question. Dallas,
Texas: Probe.
Peter, Laurence J.
1977 Peter's Quotations: Ideas for our Time. Toronto: Bantam-
Turing, Alan M.
1950 "Computing Machinery and Intelligence. Mind 59 (236)
Wegener, Ingo.
1987 The Complexity of Boolean Functions. Stuttgart: Wiley-
Teubner.
Yockey, Hubert P.
1977 "A Calculation of the Probability of Spontaneous Biogenesis by
information Teory." Journal of Theoretical Biology
67:377-398.
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